英语翻译
英语翻译
摘要 自1998年7月3日下发了《关于进一步深化城镇住房制度改革、加快住房建设的通知》以后,我国房地产行业迅速发展,逐渐成为扩大内需、拉动 GDP 增长的重要产业,在 2012年国务院下发的通知中,已将其确立为国民经济的支柱产业.但随着房地产市场的快速发展,房地产价格也一路飙升、迅速膨胀.面对这种境况,我国*不断出台各种调控政策,但效果并不十分理想.针对我国房地产行业的发展问题以及其独有的特征入手,结合房地产价格的影响因素以及*银行的货币政策,深刻说明货币政策对我国房地产价格的传导机制,选取全国商品房销售的均价作为房地产价格 ,选取利率、广义货币供应量、银行信贷及存款准备金率作为货币政策指标,并在 VAR 模型的基础上实证分析货币政策对我国房地产价格的影响.从长期来看,房地产价格与选取的货币政策变量之间存在长期的均衡关系,且广义货币供应量与存款准备金率对房价产生正向的影响,实际利率与银行信贷对房地产价格产生负向影响；从短期看来,滞后一期的银行信贷对房地产价格有显著的负向影响,滞后一期的广义货币供应量对房地产价格有显著的正向影响,而滞后一期的存款准备金率对房价虽有正向影响,但影响仍然相对较小.从脉冲响应的结果看来,房地产价格对于利率的冲击是负向的响应,对于广义货币供应量的冲击是正向的响应,存款准备金率对房地产价格的冲击短期来看是负向影响,长期来说影响是正向的,对于银行信贷的冲击,房地产价格具有微弱的正向的响应.
Since July 3,1998,issued the "on the further deepening of the urban housing system reform,speed up housing construction notice",China's real estate industry rapid development,has gradually become an important industry to increase the domestic demand,pulling GDP growth,in 2012 the State Council issued the notice,have beenestablished as the pillar industry of the national economy.But with the rapid development of the real estate market,real estate prices have soared,the rapid expansion of.Faced with this situation,our government has introduced various policies,but the effect is not very ideal.Aiming at the problem of the development of China's real estate industry and its unique characteristics,combined with theinfluence factors of real estate price and the monetary policy of the central bank,a profound description of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy on real estate price in China,the national commercial housing sale foldas real estate prices,select interest rate,money supply,bank credit and deposit reserve rate as indicators of monetary policy,and in the VAR model based on theempirical analysis of the impact of monetary policy on real estate price in china.In the long run,there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between real estate price and themonetary policy variable,and the reserve volume and thedeposit rate of broad money supply has a positive impact on prices,the real interest rate and bank credit has negative impact on the price of real estate; in the short term,the lagged bank credit to the real estate price has a significant negative impact,lagging behind the broad money supply period have a significant positive impact onreal estate prices,and one period lag deposit reserve ratio on the prices are a positive impact,but the impact is still relatively small.It appears from the impulse response of the results,real estate prices is negative response tointerest rate shocks,the broad money supply shock is a positive response,the deposit reserve rate on real estate prices impact the short term is negative,the long termeffect is positive,the bank credit shocks,the price of real estate a positive response to weak.