一道GMAT的逻辑题,20.Whenpeople predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain actionis taken,they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correctwhen the action is taken and the result occurs.On reflection,however,it oftenbecomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.Which of the following,if true,bestsupports the claims above?(A) Judging thesuccess of an action requires specifying the goal of the actio
一道GMAT的逻辑题,
20.Whenpeople predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain actionis taken,they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correctwhen the action is taken and the result occurs.On reflection,however,it oftenbecomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
Which of the following,if true,bestsupports the claims above?
(A) Judging thesuccess of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judgingwhich action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actionsthat have been successful in similar past situations.
(C) Learningwhether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result usingthat strategy through several trials.
(D) Distinguishinga correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction andineffective action is often impossible.
(E)Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context ofthat prediction.
正确答案是D,我排除法做出来的,ABCE都有问题,但D怎么就对了,不懂.
推论是基于文中信息，解题时避免自己加入假设。题目说要成功实行贸易壁垒需要两个条件：国际合作和对货物在某个国家流动的禁止。同时，A total blockade of Patria’s ports is necessary to an embargo， but such an action would猓濉。欤椋耄澹欤。簦铩。悖幔酰螅濉。椋睿簦澹颍睿幔簦椋铮睿幔臁。洌椋螅悖铮颍洹。铮觯澹颉。簦瑁濉。澹恚猓幔颍纾铮扔谒嫡饬礁鎏跫ハ嗲V疲歉雒芴澹痢」手泻偷囊饧?。从这些信息没有办法知道 B 只满足international accord这个条件并不能满足贸易壁垒的成功实施 C 只是说明A total blockade of Patria’s ports的原因d没有推论 D 能够推出基于文中所给的矛盾，贸易壁垒迟早要失败的 E a blockade of Patria’s ports成功的条件没有讨论也无法从已知信息推论
我觉得是题目里面的最后一句话
On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
所以说结果可能会有不止一种解释, 所以这样的话就不知道哪一种prediction是正确的了
那么D就是对的了·
你觉得呢？
举个例子：
有人说成绩高是因为努力,所以如果谁很努力而且成绩很好,人们就可以理解.但是实际上,努力只是成绩好的一个因素.
D的意思就是成绩好和学习努力之间没有充分必要关系,所以不可能分辨哪个是哪个的原因或结果.